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USDBoard rank1of 10Open the Federal Reserve tracker: the rate path, what the bank says and who decides
US dollar
Still the cleanest case on the board
The rate gap is doing the work and the data has not argued with it.
- Bias
- Bullish
- Confidence
- medium
- Institutions
- Central bank
- Federal Reserve
The main risk
A soft print at the front end.
What would refute the call
Core services below 3% for two prints
Why we lean this way
3 reasons, 1 working nowWorking nowNot active yet
For the call
- Working now:
Rate advantage after inflation
The real rate gap is still doing the work and has not started to close.
What works against it
- Not active yet:
Activity has rolled over, but the labour market has not followed it yet.
Pulls neither way
- Quiet
Positioning is no longer one-sided.
The things we compare on every currency
same four scored on every currency, one of them in the board scoreCentral bank tracker
The bank’s rate, its last and next decision, what the market prices for the year ahead and how its voters lean.
- Rate right now
- 3.75%
- Federal Reserve
- Last decision
- Held
- 29 Jul 2026 · Frozen copy · taken 10 Sep 2026
- Next decision
- 5 Feb 2026
- In 12 days
- Market expects in a year
- 3.25%
- −50bp · 82% already priced
- How the voters lean
- —
- Not published
Policy rateSet by the bank
In its own words
Hawkish55%Leaning toward holding, with a hawkish tilt reinforced by an intact labour picture and a priced path that keeps firming rather than easing
Our read of its statement of 19 Aug 2026
