EUR/USD
The rate gap is doing the work, and the data has not argued with it
- Time frame
- two weeks
- Conviction
- High
- Spot
- 1.0842
The front end stopped pricing further cuts two weeks ago and the pair has not followed it up yet. That gap is the whole of the case: it closes on a soft print, and on nothing else this month.
The board reads the EUR bearish, while this Call buys it, and the board reads the USD bullish, while this Call sells it. A currency page weighs one currency against the other nine; a Call weighs EUR against USD alone, so the two can differ.
We are buying EUR/USD: that means buying the euro and selling the US dollar. The price is how many US dollars one euro buys, so it rises when the euro gains on the US dollar.
- For the Call, working now: The rate gap is still doing the work here and has not started to close.
- Against the Call, not moving it yet: The rate gap is still doing the work here and has not started to close.
Core services below 3% for two prints
- Threshold:
- 3.0%
- Horizon:
- two months
The things we compare, side by side
No Factors both currencies carry delivered yet.
Who pays more to hold
Holding EUR/USD in line with our Call (long) means you earn EUR’s interest rate and pay USD’s. Money tends to flow toward the currency that pays more, which pushes its price up.
No rates for these two central banks delivered yet.
What each central bank is doing
Both banks’ rates over the last year and where the market expects them, when each decides next, and how each leans.
The central bank
- Next decision
- — ·
- In 12 days
No central bank read for this currency delivered yet.
Open the full The central bank trackerThe central bank
- Next decision
- — ·
- In 12 days
No central bank read for this currency delivered yet.
Open the full The central bank trackerWhat lands next for EUR and USD
High impactHighMedium impactMediumLow impactLowForecast on the right · times UTC
EUR
USDTodayOne release of consequence.
- Invalid Date −NaN day
- High impactCore inflation3.0%The front end prices the next decision off it.
