The Fed Dot Plot Explained

Dot plot explained: the dot plot is the chart in which each Federal Reserve policymaker marks where they expect the federal funds rate to be at the end of the next few years and in the longer run. The Fed publishes it four times a year, with its Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), at the March, June, September and December meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC calendar).

The Fed’s recent decisions and the date of the next one are on Fed Interest Rate Decision (FOMC). Who sits on the committee is on the Federal Reserve’s page.

Who puts a dot on the chart

Every FOMC participant submits a projection, whether or not they vote that year: the seven members of the Board of Governors and the twelve Reserve Bank presidents, up to 19 in all. A vacancy lowers the count. For the September 2026 projections, 18 participants submitted, and one of them left out 2028 and 2029 (September 2026 SEP).

• The dots are anonymous. The chart does not say which dot is whose.
• Each dot is what that participant thinks is appropriate under their own forecast for the economy. It is a projection, not a promise or a plan the committee voted on.

How to read it

• The median dot. The middle projection for each year. Markets watch it most. The SEP tables print it, with the full range.
• The longer-run dot. Where participants expect the rate to settle once the economy is at full employment and 2% inflation, with no new shocks. Subtract the 2% goal and you get the implied neutral real rate, r-star. A policy rate above the longer-run dot is restrictive; below it, accommodative.
• The spread. Tightly clustered dots mean the committee broadly agrees. Widely spread dots mean it does not, and a few changed minds can move the median.
• The other projections. Growth, unemployment, PCE inflation and core PCE inflation come in the same SEP. They explain why the dots sit where they do.

How far off the median can be

In December 2021 the median projection for the federal funds rate at the end of 2022 was 0.9% (December 2021 SEP). By December 2022 the FOMC had raised its target range to 4.25–4.50% (FOMC statement), as inflation ran far stronger than participants had expected.

The dots move when the data move.

Why the dot plot moves the dollar

Currencies trade on the expected path of interest rates more than on today’s rate. Before each meeting, that path is already priced in fed funds futures and overnight index swaps (OIS).

• A median above market pricing is a hawkish surprise. Front-end yields tend to rise and the dollar tends to firm.
• A median below market pricing is a dovish surprise. Yields and the dollar tend to fall.

So read two things: the change from the previous SEP, and the gap between the median and market pricing. The level on its own says little. What hawkish and dovish mean is in What Is Hawkish and Dovish in Forex? The gap between the Fed’s rate and the others’ is on Interest rate differential by currency pair.