What Is NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls)?

NFP, short for Non-Farm Payrolls, is the monthly change in the number of paid jobs in the United States outside farming. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes it in its Employment Situation report, usually on the first Friday of the month at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time.

When a holiday or the calendar gets in the way, the date moves: the BLS lists every date on its release schedule. The date and time of the next report are on When is the next NFP? The forecast and the recent results against it are on US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP).

What NFP counts

Each month the BLS surveys about 119,000 businesses and government agencies, covering about 622,000 worksites (BLS technical note). The survey is called Current Employment Statistics.

• It counts paid jobs at private businesses outside farming.
• It counts federal, state and local government jobs too. Only civilian employees count: uniformed members of the armed services are left out.
• It leaves out farm workers, private household workers, proprietors, the self-employed, and unpaid family or volunteer workers (BLS CES FAQ).

What else is in the report

Average hourly earnings come from the same payroll survey. The unemployment rate comes from a separate survey of about 60,000 households; its releases are on US Unemployment Rate.

The two surveys measure different things, so they can disagree in a given month.

Revisions

The first NFP figure is an estimate. The BLS revises each month’s figure in the next two reports, as more survey responses arrive. Once a year a benchmark adjusts the series again, to the payroll counts from unemployment insurance records.

A strong headline with a large downward revision to the two months before it is a weaker report than it first looks.

Why NFP moves currencies

Jobs feed wages, wages feed inflation, and inflation drives the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions.

• A payroll gain above the forecast makes the Fed more likely to keep rates high. That tends to support the dollar.
• A clear miss points to slowing demand and earlier rate cuts. That tends to weigh on the dollar.

The surprise against the forecast matters more than the level. Traders read the headline together with wages and revisions before they decide what the report says.